PA Environment Digest Blog: Natural Gas Intelligence: 76% Increase In LNG Natural Gas Export Capacity Already Under Construction; US Group Fears Buildout Will Hurt American Businesses Urge ‘US Consumers First’ Policy

On February 12, Natural Gas Intelligence issued a special report saying US LNG natural gas export facility capacity will increase by 76% once facilities now under construction not affected by the Biden Administration’s new LNG facility permit freeze are completed.

NGI reported existing LNG export facility capacity is 14 billion cubic feet per day and LNG facilities permitted and under construction now represent another 10.7 billion cubic feet of capacity. Read more here.

The report also noted the US Energy Information Administration projects “stronger pricing is predicted into 2025, as US LNG export capacity increases.”

This report is similar to a report on February 6 by the Environmental Integrity Project saying the Biden’s Administration’s pause on permits for new LNG facilities will not slow the flow of US natural gas abroad. Read more here

On February 12, the US Energy Information Administration added more detail to these general numbers by saying three new LNG terminals will come online in the second half of 2024 and in 2025 totalling an additional 5.3 billion cubic feet per day of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.

“Our [EIA] forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.” Read more here.

In November, the EIA projected LNG export capacity from North America is likely to more than double through 2027 counting projects already under construction. Read more here.

The EIA also reported growth in natural gas demand will be driven by domestic consumption in 2024 and then exports in 2025 and said natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high compared to US prices.

On January 24, 2024, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis released a new study documenting finding while the US builds new LNG natural gas export facilities, Europe reduces gas demand and diversifies energy sources.

“The U.S. continues to construct more LNG terminals; just taking into account projects that are currently being built, the country’s LNG export capacity in 2030 will be 76% higher than Europe’s forecasted demand for the super-chilled fuel in that year.”

The study concluded, “Now is the time to reevaluate the proposed LNG projects to reduce the risk of overinvestment.” Read more here.

US Business Objections To LNG Expansion

The Environmental Integrity Project also reported a letter from the Industrial Energy Consumers of America on January 25 said the buildout of the LNG industry will have a big impact on consumer prices and hurt American business.

The industries said LNG exports “substantially contributed to the increase in the price of natural gas from $2.50 MMBtu to over $9.00 MMBtu and a corresponding increase in electricity prices nationally” during the winter of 2021-22 when demand resulting from the war in Ukraine drove up international prices.

“Spot prices for natural gas exceeded $600 on a regional basis. This run up in the price of natural gas and electricity cost U.S. consumers hundreds of billions of dollars.”

“All of the above have happened before and will happen again. It is just a question of time.”

“We urge you to put U.S. consumers first, not last, like it is today and put in place consumer safeguards.”

Click Here for a copy of their letter.

NewsClips:

-- Forbes: US Natural Gas Production Set New Record, But Don’t Expect Relief On Your Heating Bills [LNG Exports Link US To High Prices] [Did We Forget?]

-- Forbes Guest Essay: US Natural Gas Prices Could Spike 14% Without Biden’s Pause On New LNG Export Terminal Permits Costing Consumers $18 Billion

-- AmericanProgress.com: LNG Exports Raise Natural Gas Prices For Americans

-- Energy Institute At Haas: What Can Futures Markets Tell Us About Biden’s LNG Pause?

-- WSJ: US Natural Gas Futures Extend Losses [2.12.24]

-- Reuters: European Union Says Biden’s Pause On Approvals Of New LNG Natural Gas Export Facilities Will Have No Effect On US LNG Supplies To Europe Over Next 2 or 3 Years [LNG Exports Are Expected To Double By 2030 On Already-Approved Projects]

-- Environmental Integrity Project: Biden’s Pause In New Permits For LNG Natural Gas Facilities Won’t Slow The Flow Of US Natural Gas Abroad

-- Markets Insider: New Study Questions LNG Natural Gas As A ‘Bridge Fuel’ In Decarbonization