PA Environment Digest Blog: PJM Electric Auction Impacts: 1 In 5 PA Households Report Problems Now Paying Energy Bills; Electric Utility Shutoffs Up 38.1% So Far This Year

On July 25, Patrick Cicero, former PA Consumer Advocate and counsel to the Pennsylvania Utility Law Project said one in five Pennsylvania households report difficulty paying energy bills and electric utility shutoffs are already up 38.1% so far this year.

In 2024, 252,848 households experienced an involuntary electric service shut off-- a 25% increase from 2023.

As of June 2025, 122,167 experienced shut offs-- an increase of 38.1% over the same time last year.

Cicero made the comments on electric service insecurity during a media briefing on the impacts of the latest PJM electricity capacity auction. [Recording of Briefing]

PJM Auction Impacts

Patrick Cicero said-- “You can see that the auction that was just held in the last few weeks and the results of which were announced on Wednesday of this week, generated a total capacity cost of $16.1 billion.

“That is up 9.5% from last year at $14.7 billion. And you can see those costs are up considerably from the last three years and even historically looking back to the 2017, 2018 capacity auction.

“So we are in an increasing price environment in that one small slice that we talked about that has pretty significant impacts, even in its smallness about a utility bill that we'll talk about here in a minute.”

Why Are Prices So High?

“Prices are high for a number of reasons. The most significant one, the most significant driver of why costs are so high, is increased load forecast due to data center development, right?

“The projection of hyperscale load now, has resulted in getting very close to a supply shortage in PJM.

“We still have excess capacity, we still have a reserve margin that was hit in this auction, but we're getting increasingly closer. Because we've not had new entry or very much new entry of electric generating facilities.

“These markets haven't worked the way they were supposed to generate interest in new entry.

“And we have this incredibly, in a very short period of time, forecasted demand for energy. So that's a big one.

“The other big one is downgrading of reliability for gas-fired power plants due to winter reliability risks, as well as the failure of PJM to clear sufficient resources at its interconnection queue.

“Those resources looking to build and get permission to serve load have resulted in kind of perfect storm of constrained supply with increasing load.

“You can see the kind of mix that cleared in this past auction, a vast majority of which of course is natural gas.

[The cleared resource mix includes: 45% natural gas, 21% nuclear, 22% coal, 4% hydro, 3% wind and 1% solar. Pennsylvania-based generation has 59% natural gas.]

“And although a very small part, hydro, wind, and solar, it is up from prior auctions.”

Energy Insecurity

"We have a significant amount of insecurity, electricity and utility insecurity in general in Pennsylvania.

“In 2024, one quarter of a million-- 252,000 households-- had their electric utilities shut off involuntarily as a result of inability to pay bills.

“One in five Pennsylvanians report difficulty in paying energy bills. That's 20% of all Pennsylvanians report difficulty in paying their energy bills.

“And this year we're experiencing even more energy and security on the electricity side.

“As of June of 2025, we had 122,167 involuntary electric shutoffs across the major electric distribution utilities.

That is an increase of 38% compared to this time last year.

“And that is a number that doesn't capture the whole picture, because that only captures the large utilities, which in Pennsylvania we're talking about know PPL, PECO, Duquesne Light, and the four First Energy utilities as well as some small data from UGI, but it doesn't cover some of the smaller electric utilities, Citizens and Wellsboro Pike.

“And it also doesn't cover our municipal electric utilities or other rural electric cooperatives.

“Households at or below 150% of the federal poverty level had "experienced termination rates at exceptionally high levels that have been growing exponentially since 2001.

“That big spike in 2006, 2007 really as a result of a couple of functions, one of which is the economy at the time and the recession that occurred.

“The other one is increased enhanced tools for utilities to terminate service that passed the General Assembly in 2004, 2005."

Electricity Costs

"You can see from 2006 to 2025, bills have almost doubled going from $55 to $98 [for baseload customers, meaning people who heat with some source other than electricity, so they could be heating with natural gas or kerosene or fuel oil].

“Obviously to use more than this. Your bill is going to be more than that

For customers using 2000 kilowatt-hours a month-- someone heating and cooling with electricity-- "those costs went up pretty significantly, up to $169 to an excess of $350

"So we have a significant increase in bills, significant costs for consumers that have led to significant increases in utility terminations.”

Distribution Costs Up

"I just want to convey to everyone that, while we're talking about that little slice, which is capacity, in 2024, all of the electric utilities with the exception of PPL we're in for distribution rate increases, we expect that all of them will also be in again in 2026.

“We don't know that for sure, but we're anticipating that. And so all of these costs are going up.

Capacity Auction Costs Up

"[In] July of 2024, we had a capacity auction that resulted in $14.7 billion increase in capacity costs.

“Those [increases] finally got blended into electric rates in June of 2025, at least those rates that were being served by electric distribution utilities.

"You can see even that little slice [from the PJM capacity auction] increased rates anywhere between five and 16% depending on the electric utility for customers.

"That increase translates into on that 502,000 kilowatt-hour household as much as $35 or so a month in PPL for a heating customer."

[PJM estimated the latest capacity auction prices will increase electricity prices 1.5 to 5% on customer’s bills. Read more here.]

"The takeaway is-- costs are going up for consumers."

Click Here for Cicero’s presentation slides.

Robert Routh, PA Policy Director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, was also part of the briefing.

Click Here for Routh’s presentation slides.

Click Here for a recording of the briefing.

Resource Links - PA Electric Grid:

-- 30 Stakeholder Comments Received By PUC On Adequacy Of Electricity Supplies In Pennsylvania; Increasing Natural Gas Power Plant Reliability To 90-95% Would Mean No Imminent Capacity Problem [PaEN]

-- PUC Invites Stakeholder Comments On The Issue Of The Adequacy Of Electricity Supplies In Pennsylvania [Background On Issue] [PaEN]

-- Guest Essay: Rewriting The Energy Story — Together - By Stephen M. DeFrank, Chairman, Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission [PaEN]

-- PUC: Brace For Higher Electric Bills As A Result Of Soaring Power Use; Consumers Should Review Energy Options [PaEN]