North American Electric Reliability Corp: Electric Grid At Elevated Risk Of Insufficient Energy Supplies During Extreme Weather Due To Rising A.I. Data Center Demands, 'Precarious' Natural Gas Supplies

On November 18, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released its 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment finds that much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions. 

Although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging. 

This is largely due to rising electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly outpacing winter on-peak capacity. This, coupled with the changing resource mix, is affecting the winter outlook.

The report says the PJM Interconnection that includes Pennsylvania should have a normal risk, not elevated risk, of having insufficient energy supplies in extreme weather and expects around 35% installed reserves. (page 26).

[PJM’s own winter power outlook report on November 3 said it was expected to be able to serve growing demand under “expected conditions.”  Read more here.

[PJM issued a series of maximum generation alerts this past summer [Read more here] and set a record for winter electricity use in January [Read more here. Read more here.]]

“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25%--as we saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis. “This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions.”

'Precarious' Natural Gas Supplies

Although evidence from the past two winters indicates notable improvement in the delivery of natural gas to bulk power system generators, natural gas availability for generators remains precarious during extreme winter conditions due to the uneven application of voluntary freeze protection mitigations impacting production and transportation.

“Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation in winter. Winter fuel supplies for thermal generators must be readily available during the periods of high demand for both electricity and natural gas that accompany extreme cold weather,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessment. 

“Although we are seeing evidence of improved performance, grid operators in areas that rely on single-fuel gas-fired generators are exposed to unanticipated generator loss during cold snaps when gas supply interruptions are more prevalent,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessment. 

NERC’s cold weather Reliability Standards address recommendations from winter storms Elliott and Uri reviews. 

The most recent standard, EOP-012-3, became effective on October 1, 2025, among the improvements in the new version are enhanced and expanded requirements to ensure that Generator Owners (GO) implement corrective actions to address known issues affecting their ability to operate in cold weather in a timely manner.

This year’s assessment, previewed in the 2025-2026 WRA video and summarized in the WRA infographic, makes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the bulk power system this winter.

Undertaken annually in coordination with the Regional Entities, NERC’s WRA examines multiple factors that collectively provide deep and unique insights into reliability risk. 

These factors include resource adequacy, encompassing reserve margins and scenarios to identify operational risk; fuel assurance; and preparations to mitigate reliability concerns.

Click Here for the NERC announcement.

NewsClips:

-- Reuters: US A.I. Data Center Demand Raising Power Risks This Winter, NERC Says

-- Bloomberg: US Faces Winter Blackout Risks From A.I. Data Centers’ Power Needs, NERC Says

-- Utility Dive: North American Electric Reliability Corp: Winter Peak Demand Is Rising Faster Than Resource Additions

Related Articles This Week:

-- PUC: Natural Gas Utility Winter Reliability Reports Forecast Slightly Higher Usage, Costs  [PaEN]

-- North American Electric Reliability Corp: Electric Grid At Elevated Risk Of Insufficient Energy Supplies During Extreme Weather Due To Rising A.I. Data Center Demands, 'Precarious' Natural Gas Supplies  [PaEN] 

-- PUC Sets Hearings On PPL Electric Proposed 7% Rate Increase Starting Dec. 8  [PaEN] 

-- Dept. Of Human Services Begins Accepting Applications For Low-Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)  Dec. 3, After Federal Shutdown Delay  [PaEN] 

-- 500 Feet Isn’t Enough - House Hearing I: Shale Gas Industry Says Setbacks Won’t Protect Residents, Public Health, Environment From Shale Gas Operations, Only ‘Rigorous Oversight’ Will; Standards Have Not Changed In 9 Years  [PaEN] 

-- 500 Feet Isn't Enough- House Hearing II: As A Township Supervisor We Have An Obligation To Protect The Health, Safety And Welfare Of Our Township Residents From Shale Gas Development  [PaEN]

-- 500 Feet Isn't Enough - House Hearing III: What It’s Really Like Living Next To A Shale Gas Well Pad - Nosebleeds, Headaches, Nausea, Air Pollution, Vibrating House, Sleepless Nights, Anxiety, Truck Traffic  [PaEN]  

[Posted: November 19, 2025] PA Environment Digest