Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Independent Fiscal Office Increases FY 2016-17 Revenue Estimate By $900 Million

The Independent Fiscal Office Wednesday increased its FY 2016-17 revenue estimate by about $900 million to take into account the budget revenue package passed in June to increase state revenues.
So, if the IFO is correct, there will be $900 million more available for the General Fund than was spent in the FY 2016-17 budget.
The IFO says available revenues will total $32.5 billion in FY 2016-17, rather than $31.66 billion it had estimated in June.
The FY 2016-17 General Fund budget passed in June totaled $31.6 billion with another $100 million or so of new revenue to come from expanded gaming, when, or if,  the General Assembly and Gov. Wolf agree on a bill to pass.
The IFO estimates for revenue brought in by the tax package is actually lower in almost all cases than the summary published at the time the revenue package was passed.
Among the budget package income/loss itemized by the IFO are--
-- Bank Shares Tax: $21.1 million [$23.5 million*]
-- Sales & Use Tax (Vendor Discount): $61.5 million [$55.5 million*]
-- Sales & Use Tax (Digital Downloads): $45.7 million [$46.9 million*]
-- Sales & Use Tax (transfer to Commonwealth Financing Authority): Loss of $95.3 million
-- Cigarette Tax: $411.7 million [$431.1 million*]
-- Cigarette Tax (transfer to Agricultural Easement Fund): $5 million loss
-- Electronic Cigarettes: $11.2 million [$13.3 million*]
-- Smokeless Tobacco: $33.7 million [$48.2 million*
-- Personal Income Tax (Lottery Winnings): $15.2 million [$15.8 million*]
-- Table Games Tax: $17.6 million [$16.8 million*]
-- Tax Amnesty: $100 million [same]
The IFO analysis also includes a review of the impact of various new and existing tax credit programs enacted as part of the budget revenue package.
A copy of the revised estimated is available online.
*Summary of revenue package published by House Democrats in July.

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