PA Environment Digest Blog: PJM Interconnection Anticipates Adequate Electric Generation Resources To Meet Summer Demand Under 'Anticipated Conditions'

Thursday, May 2, 2024

PJM Interconnection Anticipates Adequate Electric Generation Resources To Meet Summer Demand Under 'Anticipated Conditions'

On May 2, PJM Interconnection, the regional electricity grid operator that includes Pennsylvania, announced it expects to meet summer electricity demand in 2024, though continuing generator retirements and increasing demand continue to erode reserve levels for the operator of the nation’s largest electrical grid.

Tighter reserves could result in the use of demand response or additional emergency procedures under scenarios involving extreme heat combined with significant generator outages.

“We plan throughout the year to make sure we have enough resources to serve load at the hottest time of the year,” said PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. “But we are concerned that new generation is not coming online fast enough to replace retiring resources, and that subsequent years may be more challenging.”

Loss Of Generation Resources

The system is experiencing what PJM forecast in its 2023 Resource Retirements, Replacements and Risks (PDF) paper: The loss of generation resources is outpacing the addition of replacement resources amid accelerating growth in consumers’ demand for electricity.

It is an issue confronting grid operators throughout North America.

That means PJM has fewer generation resources to draw on this summer compared with 2023 – approximately 182,500 MW of installed generating capacity is available in 2024 to meet customer needs, compared with approximately 186,500 MW of installed capacity last summer.

Higher Peak Demand Than Last Summer

PJM also projects higher peak demand for electricity this summer at approximately 151,000 MW compared with the 2023 summer peak load of 147,000 MW.

PJM’s all-time, one-day highest power use was recorded in the summer of 2006 at 165,563 MW.

One megawatt can power about 800 homes.

Although PJM has performed reliability studies at loads exceeding 164,000 MW, the increased peak load forecast combined with reduced generating capacity reduces reserve margins for extreme weather scenarios.

Scenarios that include this higher level of demand, combined with low solar and wind output and/or high generator outages, would further reduce reserve margins.

In these unlikely but possible set of circumstances, PJM might have to implement additional procedures to manage emergencies, including demand response, calls for conservation, limits on electricity exports, or even temporary service interruptions.

Above-Average Temperatures

The National Weather Service predicts above-average temperatures this summer for the entire PJM footprint, as well as wetter conditions than normal. However, PJM and our members also need to be prepared for more extreme weather scenarios.

“With increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, we need to also prepare for more extreme weather conditions,” said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President – Operations, Planning and Security. “We will continue to work with our utility partners and stakeholders to refine our planning, analysis and communications of the risks presented by any challenging weather patterns this summer.”

Predicting the demand for electricity helps procure an adequate supply of power today and in the years ahead.

Making these predictions – called load forecasting – is a job PJM does routinely, for both short- and long-term periods, to help acquire an adequate supply of power for reliable service at the most reasonable cost.

A dedicated team of operators uses sophisticated technology to balance supply and demand and direct the power grid 24/7 from PJM’s control rooms.

They prepare multiple potential scenarios that could be impacted by weather, emergency conditions or equipment failure.

They adjust resource output with changes in demand and ensure that no transmission lines or facilities are overloaded.

The team also watches for unusual conditions and reacts to them to protect the electricity supply.

PJM Interconnection coordinates the movement of electricity through all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Visit the PJM Interconnection website for more information.

Resource Links:

-- Utility Dive Guest Essay: FERC, NERC Review Of Winter Storm Gas Infrastructure Failures Lacks Transparency, Provided Insufficient Scrutiny On Impacts - By Union Of Concerned

-- Senate Republicans Pass Bill Authorizing An Authority To Take Over Permitting Large-Scale Energy Projects; Eliminating Public Comment; Waiving Any Regulation; Providing Immunity From Prosecution; Barbers Reviewing Permits? [PaEN]

-- Capital & Main: US Oil/Gas Production Is Booming; So Are The Industry’s Donations To Its Republican Allies [PA Will See A ‘Flood Of Money From The Industry’]

-- Pennsylvania’s Electric Grid Is Dependent On One Fuel To Generate 59% Of Our Electricity; Market Moving To Renewables + Storage [PaEN]

-- Gov. Shapiro On Republican Reaction To His Energy Plan: They’ve Done Nothing And Power ‘Plants Have Closed On Their Watch;’ They’re ‘Used To Doing Nothing;’ ‘Doing Nothing Is Not Acceptable’ [PaEN]

NewsClips:

-- HartEnergy.com: CNX, Other Appalachian Gas Producers Slash Production, Deferring Well Completions As Gas Prices Hover Near Record Lows

-- Reuters: EQT Extends Output Curbs As Natural Gas Prices Stay Low

-- Inquirer Guest Essay: You Don’t Need To ‘Sacrifice’ Chester For Europe’s LNG Gas Security - By Lisa Badum, Member Of German Bundestag Since 2017

-- Williamsport Sun Guest Essay: Lift The LNG Gas Permit Ban [On New Gas Export Facilities] - By David Callahan, Marcellus Shale Gas Coalition [Coalition Wants To Ship PA Gas To Our Competitor China ]