PA Environment Digest Blog: PJM Winter Power Outlook: Adequate Power Supplies Available To Serve Growing Demand Under Expected Conditions; 1 GigaWatt Of Mostly Solar Power Capacity Added Since Last Winter

On November 3, the PJM Interconnection announced the 13 state regional power grid-- including Pennsylvania-- should have sufficient resources this winter under expected conditions to meet electricity demands, although demand continues to outpace the addition of new generating resources.

PJM said it expects to have 180,800 MW of operational capacity to serve a forecasted peak electricity demand of approximately 145,700 MW, which would set a new record if reached.

This expectation is based on PJM and the PJM resources continuing to take operational steps to improve generator performance during extreme winter conditions.

PJM reached an all-time winter high of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22 of this year, 2,000 MW less than this winter’s forecast peak.

PJM has added approximately 4,800 MW of new generation (nameplate capacity) since last winter, most of it solar; that translates to approximately 1,000 MW more operational capacity for the 2025–2026 winter.

PJM forecasts a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW, after taking into account expected generation outages, electricity exports and other factors. This is down from 8,700 MW last year.

This margin factors in winter generation performance that has improved since Winter Storm Elliott; that margin could shrink further if generators perform poorly.

“The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues,” said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President – Operations, Planning and Security. “PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation.”

Winter Scenarios/Passed Natural Gas Outages

To develop its winter scenario forecasts, PJM analyzes expected electricity demand, weather predictions and other factors.

The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for the Atlantic seaboard, with typical temperatures – but above-average precipitation – in PJM’s midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.

PJM also expects to remain reliable through several more extreme, but less likely, cold weather scenarios in which lower amounts of power generation are available and there is more demand within PJM or in external systems in need of PJM’s assistance for reliability.

PJM’s scenario analyses include load of up to 150,300 MW; those studies show that system reliability is maintained under most scenarios, including expected outages.

Significantly higher levels of generator outages, however, such as those that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott (~46,000 MW), could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.

[Note: Most of those unplanned outages were natural gas-fired power plants.]

Winter Preparations

PJM and stakeholders take a number of actions to prepare for cold weather, outlined in its Cold Weather Preparation Guideline and Checklist, contained in Manual 14D, Attachment N.

These protocols incorporate lessons learned from past severe events, including Winter Storm Elliott (2022), Winter Storm Uri (2021) and Winter Storm Enzo (2025).

This year, PJM will request generators provide extreme cold weather temperature data per standards approved by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) on Oct. 1.

PJM continues to build its database of minimum operating temperatures for its generation fleet to better understand the limitations of certain generators in extreme cold.

PJM will also perform unannounced operational tests of generators that have not run for several weeks leading into the winter.

These tests are performed in advance of extreme weather or high system demand to help ensure that these resources are fully functional and ready to operate when needed.

PJM and ReliabilityFirst, which oversees reliability for NERC in much of the PJM footprint, will double the number of winter preparedness site visits to 30 generation facilities, ensuring that winterization best practices and lessons learned are shared systemwide.

During the fall, PJM meets with regulators and neighboring system operators to review winter preparations.

PJM also conducts weekly operational review meetings during the winter with major natural gas pipelines to coordinate operations serving the natural gas fleet.

“Generator performance will be critical to maintaining reliability this winter,” said Michael Bryson, Sr. Vice President – Operations. “We are encouraged by the work we have seen by generation owners to fortify their units for winter operations, and we will continue to focus on communication and coordination that help us understand how PJM can help to mitigate gas scheduling challenges or other generator limitations.”

Click Here for the PJM announcement.

PA Oil & Gas Industry Public Notice Dashboards:

-- PA Oil & Gas Weekly Compliance Dashboard - Nov. 1 to 7 - Failed To Plug Shale Gas Well For 1,521 Days; 20,000 Gallon Spill Into Mine Void; 99% Of Conventional Well Owners Fail To Comply With Methane Rule [PaEN]

-- DEP: More Than 99% Of Conventional Oil & Gas Facility Owners Failed To Comply With VOC/Methane Reduction Regulations Covering 64,660 Wells; Had 193 Days To File [PaEN]

-- DEP: Spills, Releases Continue At Seneca Resources Taft Shale Gas Well Pad In Middlebury Twp., Tioga County For 373 Days And Counting [PaEN]

-- DEP: MarkWest Liberty Midstream Pipeline Construction Results In 20,000 Gallon Spill Into Coal Mine Voids Under Washington County, For The 3rd Time [PaEN]

-- DEP: EQM Gathering Has 6th ‘Inadvertent’ Release During Pipeline Construction In Nottingham Twp., Washington County [PaEN]

-- DEP: LPR Energy LLC Fails To Plug Abandoned Shale Gas Well For 1,521 Days And Counting In Fayette County [PaEN]

-- PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - November 8 [PaEN]

-- DEP Invites Comments On Chapter 105 Permit For MarkWest Liberty Midstream 20-Inch Natural Gas Gathering Pipeline In Mount Pleasant & Cecil Townships, Washington County [PaEN]

-- DEP Invites Comments On Air Quality Permit For 15 Natural Gas Generators To Power 15 Iron City A.I. Computing Centers In Karthaus Twp., Clearfield County [PaEN]

-- DEP Invites Comments On Renewal Of Title V Air Quality Permit For United Refinery In City Of Warren, Warren County [PaEN]