December could be colder than normal across the northern U.S., and grid operators and the natural gas sector say they are preparing, said Utility Dive.
[The Independent Fiscal Office reported in March Pennsylvania’s electricity grid is dependent on one fuel for 59% of the state’s electricity generation-- natural gas-- followed by nuclear power-- 31.9%, coal-- 5.4% and 3.7% from other sources. Read more here.
[In July, the PJM Interconnection auction for wholesale electricity generation capacity to be delivered in 2025-26 resulted in a 933% increase in electricity costs over 2024-25. Read more here.
[PJM said one of the factors in raising prices was improved risk modeling for extreme weather and accreditation that more accurately values each resource’s contribution to reliability.
[In plain language that means accurately factoring in the potential unreliability of natural gas, among other factors.
[The next PJM auction is in December. Read more here.
[In addition, Pennsylvania natural gas producers like EQT, CNX Resources, Coterra Energy, Chesapeake Energy and many others have been deliberately cutting back production-- EQT alone by 1 billion cubic feet per day-- in an attempt to raise natural gas prices.
[From August 23 to September 13, Baker Hughes reported the number of shale gas drilling rigs in Pennsylvania dropped from 21 to 14-- a 33% decline.
[Marcellus Drilling News reported on September 10 Coterra Energy has pulled all its active shale gas drilling regs from Susquehanna County until natural gas prices ‘recover.’ Read more here.]
NERC Statement
Next month marks the one-year anniversary of the FERC/NERC/Regional Entity staff report on Winter Storm Elliott—a wide-area extreme cold event that affected states in the Eastern Interconnection from Georgia to Maine and from Nebraska to Pennsylvania.
This revealing event is just the latest among numerous others demonstrating the inextricable link and interconnection between the natural gas and electric systems.
As winter approaches, the Elliott experience demonstrates the increasing importance of reliable natural gas supply to support electric reliability and our way of life as well as the importance of winter readiness in both the electric and natural gas sectors.
On December 23–24, 2022, Winter Storm Elliott gripped the eastern United States, with low temperatures that were 15 to 30 degrees below normal.
Temperature extremes precipitated a sharp spike in peak electricity demand, driving energy emergency declarations by many grid operators.
During the event, unplanned generation outages at one point totaled 90,500 MW, equivalent to 13% of the resources in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.
To maintain grid reliability over the course of the storm, transmission operators in the Southeast ordered firm load shedding at various periods that exceeded 5,400 MW in total.
It was the largest recorded manual load shed in the history of the Eastern Interconnection.
Natural gas supply disruption was a central cause of generator failures that led to load shedding.
The extreme cold conditions caused major declines in natural gas wellhead production, with additional impacts to processing activity, challenging the gas system’s ability to meet demand from electric generation and home heating.
Natural gas production declined most significantly in the eastern United States—in the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations—where production dropped by 23 to 54%.
The Elliott report found that natural gas fuel supply issues accounted for 20% of unplanned generating unit outages, derates, and failures to start.
Analysis also revealed a close call in the New York City area. Due to a dearth in fuel supply, ConEdison, the natural gas provider for Manhattan, faced rapidly declining pressure at its citygate that threatened the reliability of supply to their system.
If not for ConEdison’s ability to tap their own LNG supplies and other measures, the gas distribution system would have been at high risk of widespread gas system outages on a scale that risked the safety and lives of millions.
Although unrelated to generation outages, this close call underscores the societal importance of a reliable natural gas supply.
Winter Storm Elliott is by no means an isolated example of the link between natural gas supply and electric reliability.
In the United States, Elliott was the fifth event in the past 13 years in which natural gas supply disruption was a factor in cold weather-related generation outages that jeopardized bulk power system reliability.
The path to resolving interdependency and interconnection of the gas and electric sectors is complex.
Jurisdictional responsibilities are spread across the states and different federal agencies.
The number and diversity of entities across the natural gas value chain adds further complexity.
As the electric system increasingly relies on natural gas, more gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage, is needed to enhance deliverability.
In fact, the natural gas-fired units are enabling the transformation to a reduced carbon future.
The natural gas industry is making encouraging progress on commercial practices and has made voluntary commitments to improve winter preparation.
Efforts such as the North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) Forum report continue to prompt positive action.
NARUC has launched its GEAR Taskforce with results expected later this year or by early next year. For its part, NERC continues to collaborate extensively with industry and policymakers.
NERC has enhanced its Reliability Standards to better prepare generators for winter extremes, implement training, and establish communication protocols between generators and grid operators.
Current standards projects encompass extreme weather planning and energy assurance requirements.
NERC and NPCC are jointly studying the Northeast gas system, with results anticipated later this year. NERC remains committed to continued collaboration on this critical interdependency.
As we approach the upcoming winter season, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.
Click Here for a copy of the NERC statement.
NewsClips:
-- Utility Dive: North American Electric Reliability Corp Sounds Alarm Over Whether There Will Be Sufficient Winter Natural Gas Supplies To Address Extreme Weather Conditions This Winter [Click Here for NERC statement]
-- Utility Dive: PJM Is Blocking Battery Storage Interconnection Pathway That Could Unlock ‘Tens Of Thousands Of Megawatts’ Of Additional Capacity For The Grid
Resource Links - Electric Grid:
-- Pennsylvania’s Electric Grid Is Dependent On One Fuel To Generate 59% Of Our Electricity; Market Moving To Renewables + Storage [PaEN]
-- Guest Essay: Pennsylvania May Not Be Able To Keep All The Lights On In Four Years - By Terry Fitzpatrick, Energy [Utilities] Association of PA
Upcoming Event
-- September 24-- Center For Coalfield Justice Hosts Program In Washington County On Increasing Setbacks From Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Related Articles This Week:
-- Exploding Water Well Shed Triggers DEP Investigation Of 59+ Abandoned Conventional Oil & Gas Wells In Cyclone, McKean County; Highlights Limits On Providing Temporary Water For Well Owners Impacted [PaEN]
-- Homeowner Complaint Results In DEP Emergency Plugging Of A Penn Resources, Inc. Conventional Oil Well Leaking Gas, Oil, Wastewater In McKean County [PaEN]
-- Cecil Township, Washington County Posts Proposed Ordinance Increasing Setbacks From Shale Gas Well Pads Of 2,500 Feet From Homes, Businesses; 5,000 Feet From Schools, Hospitals; Nov. 4 Hearing, Meeting Set [PaEN]
-- Environmental Health Project: State Dept. Of Health Progress On Implementing Recommendations After Pitt Health Studies Show Impacts From Shale Gas Development ‘Extremely Limited’ [PaEN]
-- Protect PT: Westmoreland Landfill Surrenders Air Quality Permit For An Evaporator System To Dispose Of Leachate Wastewater Impacted By Shale Gas Drilling Waste [PaEN]
-- Del-Chesco United For Pipeline Safety: Texas Explosion Shows Communities In PA With Energy Transfer's Mariner East Pipeline And Other Pipelines Are Vulnerable To The Same Unmitigated Risk From Unsecured Pipeline Valves [PaEN]
-- Allegheny Institute For Public Policy: Counites, Municipalities Need To ‘Begin Lowering Their Expectations’ On The Support From Shale Gas Industry Drilling Impact Fee [PaEN]
NewsClips:
-- The Energy Age Blog: North Fayette Residents Raise Concerns About Proposed Range Resources Fracking Site In Allegheny County
-- The Allegheny Front - Reid Frazier: Scientists Skeptical Of CNX Claim Its Fracking ‘Poses No Public Health Risks’
-- TheDailyClimate.org: Residents Say Pennsylvania Has Failed Communities After State Studies Linked Shale Gas Fracking To Child Cancer
-- Inside Climate News - Kiley Bense: Eureka Resources Oil/Gas Wastewater Treatment Company Struggles Raise Questions About The Future Of Lithium Extraction From Oil/Gas Wastewater
-- Sierra Club Magazine: Plants & Goodwin Racing To Fix Pennsylvania’s Leaking Conventional Oil & Gas Wells
-- Warren Times Editorial: There Isn’t Enough Money To Plug All Oil & Gas Wells Abandoned By Conventional Well Owners, Must Use Funds In A Cost-Effective Way
-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: Peoples Natural Gas Customers To See 12% Rate Increase This Month, With More Increases On The Way
-- Food & Water Watch: Explosion Of Energy Transfer Natural Gas Liquids Pipeline In Texas Highlights Company’s Terrible Safety Record In Pennsylvania
-- Reuters: Energy Transfer Natural Gas Liquids Pipeline Continues To Burn Into Wednesday In Houston
[Posted: September 19, 2024] PA Environment Digest
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