Competitive PJM markets procure electricity supplies needed in real time and in the future. In 2025, PJM collaborated with its stakeholders to consider and act upon modifications needed to keep pace with the changing grid and ensure that reliable electricity continues to be delivered cost-effectively.
Capacity Auctions Reflect Need for More Resources
The purpose of the capacity market is to procure power resources required for reliability for up to three years in advance.
Capacity auctions conducted in 2025 secured generation and demand response resources to meet the projected power needs of more than 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia.
Both auctions for the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 delivery years reflected the longtime trend of tightening supply and increasing demand outpacing new supply.
These auctions continued to take place on a compressed schedule with the goal of returning to the typical three-year-ahead auction in May 2027 for the 2030/2031 Delivery Year.
-- In July, the 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction secured 134,311 MW of unforced generation capacity (UCAP) and demand response (DR).
Regions under the Fixed Resource Requirement acquired an additional 11,933 MW in UCAP for a total of 146,244 MW, meeting the reliability requirement target of 19.1% in reserves but with no excess.
RTO-wide prices came in at the FERC-approved cap of $329.17/MW-day.
The auction attracted nearly 2,700 MW in new generation and uprates, but forecasted peak load increased by more than 5,400 MW, continuing the trend of new forecasted demand outstripping supply.
-- In December, the 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction secured 134,479 MW UCAP of generation and DR at the FERC-approved price cap of $333.44/MW-day.
The capacity procured in the auction, plus 11,299 MW acquired by regions under the Fixed Resource Requirement, fell short of PJM’s reliability requirement by 6,623 MW, the first time the auction had not met the reliability requirement since it was created in 2007 as forecasted demand growth continued to outpace new generation resources.
PJM continues to hold a reserve margin of 14.8%, and multiple mitigating factors, such as anticipated changes to the load forecast and resource availability, could improve the reliability picture for the system in the 2027/2028 Delivery Year.
Expanding Capacity Availability
Amid rising capacity auction prices, constrained supply and rising demand, PJM undertook several initiatives last year to best align capacity market rules with current supply and demand conditions.
These efforts successfully expanded existing supplies and eased upward pressure on prices as longer-term collaboration took place on solutions to supplement the generation fleet.
New market rules approved by FERC early in 2025 helped maximize contributions from existing resources as demand continued to outstrip supply – a cautionary note echoed by the PJM Board of Managers in support of these immediate actions.
PJM proposed, and FERC accepted, measures to increase or add unit efficiency and capacity for the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 delivery years. These included:
--Temporary price cap and floors filed by PJM were approved by FERC, following a complaint filed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. The cap of about $325/MW-day and floor of about $175/MW-day for the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 auctions balanced the need for price signals to incentivize new supply while controlling the impact of cost increases on customers.
-- Reliability Must-Run (RMR) resources are generators whose owners have announced their intention to retire the units but have agreed to time-limited operations and compensation arrangements while PJM addresses reliability issues. In Maryland, Wagner Units 3 and 4 and Brandon Shores Units 1 and 2 were included in the auctions for their capacity (but not for compensation).
-- To ease rate impacts and reduce market volatility, PJM switched to a gas-fired combustion turbine unit as the Reference Resource instead of the gas-fired combined cycle turbine, as previously planned.
This move, endorsed by stakeholders, was made to make sure that prices in the capacity market most accurately reflect the cost of building new generation in the PJM service area.
For capacity market improvements overall, beginning with the 2026/2027 Delivery Year, PJM implemented FERC-approved measures to establish a uniform Non-Performance Charge rate, amend the PJM Tariff to make clear that being exempt from the must-offer requirement is not a defense against claims of market power, and remove compensation for energy efficiency resources and reactive power.
As a result of a stakeholder-endorsed PJM proposal to FERC, beginning with the 2027/2028 Delivery Year, demand response resources’ availability window was widened to 24 hours a day. This reform, approved by FERC in May, increased the capacity value of DR resources and resulted in an increase of DR megawatts that cleared in the 2027/2028 capacity auction.
Capacity Auction Evolution
PJM continued efforts in 2025 to streamline and enhance the capacity market for future auctions.
PJM Files Joint Periodic Review Proposal
-- In advance of the typical four-year review process to update capacity market terms, PJM initiated a periodic review that culminated in the first-ever joint PJM/state proposal to FERC.
-- Approved by the PJM Board, the proposal was the only one endorsed by a supermajority of PJM stakeholders among six solution packages.
-- The joint proposal crafted with Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission Vice Chair Kimberly Barrow strikes a reasonable balance between wholesale cost and the need to attract generation investment.
-- It maintains a gas combustion turbine as the reference resource and updates the Cost of New Entry and is effective in the 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction scheduled for mid-2026. That joint state/PJM proposal capped the PJM-wide auction price at about $550/MW-day.
Study of Sub-Annual Capacity Market Options
-- As a strategic goal, PJM has long recommended the need to explore seasonal capacity market frameworks to optimize affordability and efficiency in line with industry best practices. In 2025, PJM and stakeholders took up this work anew in the Sub-Annual Capacity Market Senior Task Force with the aim of implementation for the 2028/2029 Delivery Year.
-- In December of 2025, an independent study (PDF) recommended PJM develop independent summer/winter capacity market auctions in lieu of the current fixed annual capacity market resource procurement that secures resources up to three years in the future. Benefits would include:
-- Flexible procurement of resources in line with system risks specific to summer or winter operations
-- More accurate accounting of resource capability, especially during times of increasing winter risk
-- Change from a single Variable Resource Requirement demand curve to separate Marginal Reliability Impact demand curves that more accurately account for seasonal needs and resource characteristics
-- More accurate price signals
-- Better alignment between unit performance and compensation
Effective Load Carrying Capability
-- In late 2025, the PJM Board of Managers directed PJM staff to engage a consultant to investigate the merits of, and improvements to, PJM’s system of accounting for expected resource performance considering historical performance and unit constraints.
-- PJM’s ELCC model was determined to be “methodologically sound and consistent with industry best practices” in the study (PDF) released in December.
-- The independent consulting firm, Energy+Environmental Economics, also offered PJM and stakeholders 14 considerations for improvement in the ELCC Senior Task Force. The study suggested PJM improve identification and publishing of critical hours of system need, including load and resource availability. Recommendations also included a more granular study of resource deliverability and the Capacity Benefit of Ties as well as improved modeling of storage, demand response and hydro dispatch.
Regulation Market
To respond to the needs of PJM dispatch to react more nimbly to resource mix behavior while maintaining grid frequency at 60 hertz, PJM continued a multiphase change to Regulation Market rules.
-- Beginning Oct. 1, PJM changed its Regulation Market to send a single, bidirectional signal to enable all resources to follow the same dispatch signal. Intervals were shortened from one hour to 30 minutes, while settlement is now performance-based and enables faster response when demand spikes or generation drops.
-- Changes like this aim to streamline PJM’s Regulation Market services to better respond to the growing mix of storage and renewable resources in PJM’s fleet. A second phase is planned for 2026. Overall, the changes will also help reduce over-procurement and promote reliability and market efficiency.
Click Here for the PJM article.
Visit the PJM Interconnection website for more information.
Previous Article:
-- PJM Interconnection: 2025 Year In Review Part I - Operations Improvement See Regional Electric Grid Through Record Peaks, Growing Demand [PaEN]
Resource Links:
-- PA Energy, Environmental, Citizen Advocates Call On PUC To Protect Ratepayers, Communities From Costs, Impacts Of A.I. Data Centers [PaEN]
-- Spotlight PA: Map Shows Growing Number Of A.I. Data Centers Planned Across Pennsylvania
-- PA House Committee Approves Legislation Giving Local Officials Greater Say Over Regional-Scale Developments Like A.I. Data Centers, Warehouses [PaEN]
-- In Case You Missed It: A.I./Data Center Articles - NewClips From Last Week - January 5 [PaEN]
Resource Links - Energy Affordability:
-- PUC: Most PA Electric Utility Consumers To See 3.7% To 10.6% Increase In Electricity Prices During The Next 3 Months Starting Dec. 1 [PaEN]
-- Morning Call - Elizabeth Deornellas: How A.I. Data Centers Are Driving Up The Cost Of Electricity And What Grid Operators Can Do [PDF of Article]
-- Scranton Times - Chris Kelly Opinion: PPL Proposed 7% Rate Hike A.I. Data Center Driven [PDF of Article]
-- PJM Electricity Auction Prices Again At Cap Imposed By Gov. Shapiro’s Lawsuit Settlement, Without It Prices Would Be 59% Higher Driven By A.I. Data Center Demand; Grid Reliability Now Questioned [PaEN]
-- PA Capital-Star: Energy Market Watchers See Electric Bills In PA, Other States Rising As A.I. Data Center Demand Continues
-- PaGasSwitch.com: Natural Gas Costs Increased From 9.26% to 57.5% Over The Last Year For Natural Gas Utility Customers Not Shopping For A Fuel Supplier [PaEN]
-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: PUC Approves Columbia Gas Rate Increase - 13th Since 2008
-- PUC Highlights Ways Natural Gas Customers Can Manage Winter Energy Use, Costs, Explore Energy Affordability Options [PaEN]
-- PUC Publishes Updates To Low-Income Natural Gas, Electric Utility Usage Reduction Program Regulations [PaEN]
-- PUC Chairman Highlights 'Extraordinary Challenges' Pennsylvania Families Are Facing This Winter With Energy Bills And His Appreciation For Groups Providing Assistance [PaEN]
-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: What’s Important In Affordable Energy? A Conversation With A Carnegie Mellon Energy Justice Professor
-- Data Center Stampede Trampling PA Ratepayers Part I: PA Utility Law Project - Utility Terminations Up 30% Already; Prioritize Existing Loads; Centers Need To Help Pay For Utility Assistance [PaEN]
-- Data Center Stampede Trampling PA Ratepayers Part II: PA Consumer Advocate - PUC Should Set Conditions For Centers To Be Served By The Grid; Set Power Curtailment Priorities [PaEN]
-- Data Center Stampede Trampling PA Ratepayers Part III: PJM Market Monitor - Data Centers Have Cost Existing Ratepayers $16.6 Billion Already; Centers Should Bring Their Own Power Generation To Prevent More Large Price Spikes [PaEN]
-- PJM Electric Auction Impacts: 1 In 5 PA Households Report Problems Now Paying Energy Bills; Electric Utility Shutoffs Up 38.1% So Far This Year [PaEN]
-- PJM Electricity Auction: PJM Lost 2.8 Gigawatts Of Power Due To Reduced Reliability Rating Of Natural Gas Power Plants; Could Gain 12.2 Gigawatts By Increasing Reliability From Less Than 75% Now To An Achievable 90% [PaEN]
Resource Links - Who Pays:
-- PUC Invites Comments On Proposed Model Tariff To Balance A.I. Data Center Growth And Ratepayer Protection [PaEN]
-- PUC Votes To Develop Rulemaking To Modernize Electric Interconnection Regulations; Proposed Rule Due In March [PaEN]
-- PUC Commissioners Agree On Need To ‘Get It Right’ On Reforming Grid Connection Process For Solar, Renewable, All Energy Sources To Protect Consumers, Grid Reliability [PaEN]
-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: PUC Proposes Special Treatment For A.I. Data Center Power Connections To Contain The Cost Burden On Existing Ratepayers [PDF of Article]
-- Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Orders PJM To Allow A.I. Data Centers To Connect Directly To Power Plants, Expedite Connections For Shovel-Ready Projects, Enhance Load Forecasting [PaEN]
-- WESA - Rachel McDevitt: PJM Grid Operator Covering PA Failing To Plan For Responsible A.I. Data Center Load Growth, Observers Say
-- PJM Market Monitor Files Complaint With FERC Saying PJM Is Proposing To Allow A.I. Data Centers To Connect To Grid That It Cannot Reliably Serve, Will Require Blackouts To Maintain Service [PaEN]
-- On The Eve Of New PJM Capacity Auction: Gov. Shapiro, 5 Other Governors Say PJM's Efforts To Deal With A.I. Data Center Demands Have Failed; Urge 'Decisive Action' To Avoid 'Extraordinarily’ High Prices [PaEN]
-- The Center Square: Consensus For Soaring A.I. Data Center Power Demands Still Elusive Among PJM Members
-- PA Capital-Star: PJM Grid Operator Weighs Proposals To Manage A.I. Data Center Impact On Electricity Affordability And Reliability
-- WITF/LancasterOnline: Mild Forecast For PA Winter Heating Bills In Peril As Natural Gas Prices Surge
-- PUC Directs Staff To Develop Rule On Winter Terminations, Payment Arrangements, Other Consumer Protections
Resource Links - Grid Reliability:
-- North American Electric Reliability Corp: Electric Grid At Elevated Risk Of Insufficient Energy Supplies During Extreme Weather Due To Rising A.I. Data Center Demands, 'Precarious' Natural Gas Supplies [PaEN]
-- Utility Dive: North American Electric Reliability Corp: Winter Peak Demand Is Rising Faster Than Resource Additions
-- Reuters: US A.I. Data Center Demand Raising Power Risks This Winter, NERC Says
-- Bloomberg: US Faces Winter Blackout Risks From A.I. Data Centers’ Power Needs, NERC Says
-- WGEM: Illinois State Regulators Warn Of Impending Energy Shortfalls As PJM Capacity Prices Rise Again
-- KSDK: A.I. Data Centers Are Sucking Illinois’ Power Grid Dry, Official Report Warns [PJM Service Area]
Related Articles This Week:
-- Vistra Corp. Acquires Cogentrix Energy Natural Gas Power Plants, Including 2 In PA, As Part Of Strategy To Feed A.I. Data Centers [Locking Up More Energy For A.I. Data Centers] [PaEN]
-- PJM Interconnection: 2025 Year In Review Part II: PJM Revised Market Rules With Goal Of Supporting Efficiency, Increasing Generation Resources [PaEN]
-- PUC Report Makes Recommendations Coming Out Of April/May Storms In The Greater Pittsburgh, State College Areas Causing 679,000 Electric Customers To Lose Power [PaEN]
-- Green Building Alliance Hosts Jan. 13 Online Roundtable On Restoring, Renovating Commercial Buildings Using C-PACE Financing [PaEN]
NewsClips:
-- Vistra Corp Acquires Cogentrix Energy Natural Gas Power Plants, Including 2 In PA - Patriot, Hamilton-Liberty - As Part Of Strategy To Feed A.I. Data Centers [Locking Up More Energy For Machines]
-- Utility Dive: Vistra To Buy Cogentrix Energy’s 5.5 GW Of Natural Gas Power Plants As Part Of Strategy To Feed A.I. Data Centers [2 In PA]
-- Bloomberg: Vistra Corp. Buying 10 More Gas Power Plants In New England, Texas To Deepen A.I. Energy Bet
-- Spotlight PA: As PA Energy Prices Rise, Advocates Skeptical That Lawmakers Will Put Aside Partisan Differences
-- PA Capital-Star: In 2026, More A.I. Data Center Regulations Could Be Coming In Maryland; PJM Regulator Asks For Rules To Prevent Centers From Connecting To Grid Without Their Own Power
-- PA Capital-Star: PA Supreme Court Dismisses Appeals To Revive RGGI Carbon Pollution Reduction Program [Part Of State Budget Deal]
-- Chesapeake Bay Journal - Karl Blankenship: Groups Say FERC Erred In Preliminary Approval Of Cuffs Run Susquehanna River Pump-Storage Hydroelectric Project In York County
-- Pittsburgh Business Times: Duquesne Light, FirstEnergy Face PUC Scrutiny In Wake Of April Power Outages
[Posted: January 6, 2026] PA Environment Digest
No comments :
Post a Comment