First Street Foundation Releases New Tool Showing Mid-Atlantic States Will See Wind Gusts In Storms Increase 37 MPH, Wind Damage To Property Increase Over 50% In Next 30 Years

To understand how properties’ exposure to and damage from tropical cyclones will be impacted by climate change, this report introduces the First Street Foundation Wind Model (FSF-WM). 

The FSF-WM is a probabilistic property-level risk model that estimates likely wind damages by exploring the vulnerability of structures to their exposure to tropical cyclone wind conditions at different return periods, and projecting changes in that exposure over the next 30 years.

The largest increase in maximum wind speeds will impact states in the Mid-Atlantic, including Pennsylvania. 

The Mid-Atlantic will see the largest increase in maximum wind speeds in CONUS over the next 30 years, with some areas increasing in maximum wind gust speeds by 37 mph. 

Additionally, some areas within this region can anticipate relatively large increases in the probability of experiencing a Category 1 hurricane or higher over the next 30 years when compared to today, with many areas expected to see an additional 1% annual probability. 

With this increase in exposure, the annualized damages are expected to increase by 50.3%.

Click Here for Pennsylvania specific information on wind damage risk.

The First Street Foundation has partnered with Arup, a global consulting and engineering firm, to calculate how this exposure translates to property-specific impacts such as structural damages and downtime days. 

The FSF-WM uses open science methodologies, open data provided by the federal government, and additional information and support provided by state and local governments to enable the creation of valuable new information products. 

This new wind model builds upon synthetic hurricane tracks created by Dr. Kerry Emanuel’s Wind Risk Tech LLC, and is used to assess hyper-local climate wind risk across the nation that can inform possible actions to address that risk.

Check Your Property

As with all of the climate hazard models developed by the First Street Foundation, these data are publicly available through the Risk Factor™ website to adhere to the Foundation’s nonprofit mission of making climate risk accessible, easy to understand, and actionable for citizens, government, and industry. 

Information is included on flooding, fire, heat and now wind damage risk.

Property-level Wind Factor™ assessments are readily available by address search to help resolve the asymmetry in access to high quality wind risk information in the United States. Most significantly, this hyper-local resolution allows for an extremely granular understanding of hurricane wind risk, empowering communities, states, and national government actors to take steps to address current and evolving risk.

Click Here for the complete announcement.

NewsClips:

-- Courier Times: Researchers: Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Tornadoes To Increase 87% In Bucks County

-- TribLive: Severe Windstorm Knocks Out Power, Downs Trees, Closes Roads In Fayette, Westmoreland Counties

Related Article:

-- 2021 PA Climate Impact Assessment: 13% Increase In Extremely Heavy Precipitation Events By 2050; DEP Advisory Committee Discusses Draft Impact Report, Climate Action Plan Dec. 22  [PaEN]

[Posted: March 2, 2023]  PA Environment Digest