U.S. EIA Projects Home Heating Costs Will Increase Most For Natural Gas - 28%, Heating Oil - 27%, Electricity - 10%, Propane 5% This Winter

On October 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Winter Fuels Outlook forecasting heating costs for homes that heat with natural gas will rise by 28%, heating oil by 27%, electricity by 10%, and propane 5% from October–March. 

EIA said the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average about $7.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 4Q22 and then fall below $6.00/MMBtu in 2023 as U.S. natural gas production rises.

EIA forecasts electric generation fueled by natural gas will drop from 38% of generation to 36% in 2023.  Coal-fired generation will drop from 23% to 19% in 2023.

EIA noted growing generation from renewable sources limits growth in natural gas-fired generation, and coal’s generation share declines because of the expected retirement of some coal-fired capacity.

Increases in U.S. electricity generation in our forecast come almost entirely from solar and wind. 

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[Posted: October 13, 2022]  PA Environment Digest