Friday, November 4, 2016

Election Day Is (Almost) Here! PA State House, Senate, Congressional Races We’re Watching

This election has some unique races, like those involving two indicted House members and a convicted felon running for re-election in the House, but we will be watching the results in 33 key districts across the state on election night, including three open Senate seats, nine open House seats and two open Congressional seats.
Republicans now hold solid majorities in the Senate -- 31 to 19, in the House-- 119 to 84 and in Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation-- 13 to 4.
These majorities are unlikely to change much, unless there is a record turnout for Democrats in the Southeast for Hillary Clinton.
Polls, including seven new ones this week, have consistently had Clinton leading Donald Trump since early Fall, many by more than the margin of error, but turnout will still be the issue. One new poll Friday had them tied.
The polls on the race for U.S. Senate have disagreed widely over the last few weeks, but six new polls this week all had Democrat Katie McGinty leading incumbent Republican Pat Toomey leading.  One new poll Friday had them tied and a poll Saturday had Toomey ahead by 1 point.
The winner of this race will also depend largely on Democratic turnout in the Southeast and how many voters split their votes between parties.
And weather should not be a factor.  State College-based AccuWeather forecasts dry weather in Pennsylvania for election day.
Pennsylvania’s statewide row offices are also up for grabs-- Attorney General, Auditor General and State Treasurer.  
Four years ago Democrats swept all three offices, but State Treasurer Rob McCord and Attorney General Kathleen Kane both resigned after legal problems forced them from office.
The remaining survivor-- Auditor General Eugene DePasquale-- seems to be a shoo-in for re-election, but the race for Attorney General between Democrat Josh Shapiro and John Rafferty is harsh and hard-fought.
A Public Policy Poll released Friday has Shapiro leading Rafferty 45 to 40 percent.
The State Treasurer’s race has so far been a battle of the unknowns-- Democrat Joe Torsella and Republican Otto Voit.
The wild card in Pennsylvania has always been voters splitting their ballots between Republicans and Democrats.  Lots of voters do it and with Clinton leading here, although by a shrinking margin, more than a few people may be thinking they need Republicans to balance out a vote for her.
Which all means, it will probably be a long night until we have a decision in all but the race for President in Pennsylvania.  If there’s a huge turnout in the 4 southeast counties and Philadelphia, the night may be shorter.
Here are the district races we’re watching Tuesday--
District 9 (Delaware): Incumbent Thomas Killion (R), Marty Molloy (D)
District 13 (Lancaster): Open Seat, was Smucker (R): Scott Martin (R), Greg Paulson (D)
District 15 (Dauphin): Incumbent Rob Teplitz (D), John DiSanto (R)
District 19 (Chester): Incumbent Andrew Dinniman (D), Jack London (R)
District 31 (Cumberland): Open Seat, was Vance (R):  John Bosha (D), Mike Regan (R), Kenneth Gehosky (NOA)
District 35 (Cambria): Open Seat, was Wozniak (D): Ed Cernic (D), Wayne Langerholc (R)
District 49 (Erie): Incumbent Sean Wiley (D), Daniel Laughlin (R)
District 3 (Erie): Ryan Bizzarro (D), Greg Lucas (R)
District 10 (Beaver): Incumbent Jaret Gibbons (D), Aaron Bernstine (R)
District 31 (Bucks): Open Seat, was Santarsiero (D): Perry Warren (D), Ryan Gallagher (R)
District 35 (Allegheny): Indicted Incumbent Marc Gergely (D), Fawn Walker-Montgomery (R)
District 50 (Fayette): Incumbent Pam Snyder (D), Betsy Rohanna McClure (R)
District 51 (Fayette): Incumbent Tim Mahoney (D), Matthew Dowling (R)
District 57 (Washington): Open Seat, was Daley (D): Alan Benyak (D), Donald Cook (R)
District 58 (Westmoreland): Open Seat, was Harhai (D): Mary Popovich (D), Justin Walsh (R)
District 72 (Cambria): Incumbent Frank Burns (D), Cecilia Houser (R)
District 76 (Centre): Incumbent Michael Hanna (D), Stephanie Borowicz (R)
District 95 (York): Open Seat, was Schreiber (D): Carol Hill-Evans (D), Joel Sears (R)
District 112 (Lackawanna): Open Seat, was Farina (D): Kevin Haggerty (D), Ernest Lemoncelli (R)
District 150 (Montgomery): Open Seat, was Vereb (R): Linda Weaver (D), Michael Corr (R)
District 156 (Chester): Incumbent Dan Truitt (R), Carolyn Comitta (D)
District 158 (Chester): Open Seat, was Ross (R): Susan Rzucidlo (D), Eric Roe (R)
District 162 (Delaware): Incumbent Nick Miccarelli (R), Jim Butt (D)
District 163 (Delaware): Incumbent James Santora (R), Barbarann Keffer (D)
District 165 (Delaware): Open Seat, was Adolph (R): Alex Charlton (R), Elaine Schaefer (D)
District 170 (Philadelphia): Incumbent Martina White (R), Matthew Darragh (D)
District 172 (Montgomery): Incumbent Kevin Boyle (D), Jim Pio (R)
District 177 (Philadelphia): Incumbent John Taylor (R), Joe Hohenstein (D)
District 183 (Lehigh): Open Seat, was Harhart (R): Phillips Armstrong (D), Zach Mako (R)
District 190 (Philadelphia): Indicted Incumbent Vanessa Brown (D) - only candidate
District 197 (Philadelphia): Convicted Felon Incumbent Leslie Acosta (D) - only candidate
District 8 (Bucks): Open Seat, was Michael Fitzpatrick (R): Steve Santarsiero (D), Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
District 16 (Lancaster): Open Seat, was Pitts (R):Christina Hartman (D), Lloyd Smucker (R), Shawn House (LIB)
Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Darrell Castle (CON), Jill Stein (GRN), Gary Johnson (LIB)
U.S. Senator
Katie McGinty (D), Pat Toomey (R), Edward Clifford (LIB)
Attorney General
Jos Shapiro (D), John Rafferty (R)
Auditor General
Eugene DePasquale (D), John Brown (R), John Sweeney (GRN), Roy Minet (LIB)
State Treasurer
Joe Torsella (D), Otto Voit (R), Kristin Combs (GRN), James Babb (LIB)
Ballot Question
Should Retirement Age For Judges Be Raised From 70 to 75?
Click Here for the official Department of State candidates list for all offices on the ballot November 8.
Click Here to watch voting results as they are counted for statewide races and state offices after the polls close at 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday.
Crisci Associates will also be actively Tweeting results through our PA Capitol Digest Twitter feed.   Click Here for significant updates on key races on our regular PA Capitol Digest Daily Blog site.
Hold onto your seats, it’s going to be a bumpy ride!

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