The Independent Fiscal Office Monday released its official revenue estimate showing a $1.44 billion state revenue deficit which has to be made up in the budget process. FY 2013-14 estimates are $572 million below estimates and FY 2014-15 are $870 million lower for a two-year difference of $1.442 billion.
FY 2013-14 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $28.544 billion, $572 million below the estimate with the enactment of the FY 2013-14 budget and $103 million (-0.4 percent) below receipts in the prior fiscal year.
FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $29.445 billion, an increase of 3.2 percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute.
“Revenues for FY 2013-14 unexpectedly fell below prior-year levels, an anomaly largely driven by temporary economic and technical factors,” said Matthew Knittel, Director of the IFO. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.”
The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s expectations for June revenues.
A copy of the revenue estimate is available online.